👉 The Tobago Math, also known as the Tobago Problem or the "Tobago Paradox," is a counterintuitive puzzle that challenges our understanding of probability and expectation. It goes like this: imagine a deck of 52 playing cards, shuffled randomly, and a single card is drawn. The paradox arises when considering the expected value of doubling the bet on a card that will be drawn in a future round. Intuitively, one might think the expected value should be zero because the probability of drawing any specific card is 1/52, and doubling the bet doesn't change this. However, the paradox reveals that the expected value of doubling the bet over multiple rounds is actually infinite, because each additional round increases the potential for a large payout, even though the probability of any single card being drawn remains constant. This highlights the difference between expected value and actual outcomes in probabilistic scenarios.
